Pretty simple question. Is it REALLY variance when every bust out hand of the day (16 tournaments) was a result of getting it in good - either preflop - or on the flop - and getting beat by the. A game that is volatile means your bankroll will experience some nasty up and down swings, and if you are not properly bankrolled, you can easily tap out. We can quantify volatility, and the term most frequently used in video poker circles to do this is variance per coin wagered. Simply put, the higher the variance, the more volatile the game. Variance is a killer in online poker. The upswings and downswings can affect your mood, put you on tilt, give you a false sense of superiority, and kill your enthusiasm (often all in one game). Bad variance can make it difficult to assess whether you're doing the right thing or not. What Does It Mean in Poker? Variance is the difference between expected and actual results. Also known as luck. For example, AA is an 80 percent favorite over KK preflop, but you could lose this battle with AA two or three (or more) times in a row, due to variance.

Poker Variance Simulator

Often, math people are rightfully accused of communicating in a language all their own. The average Joes may get disgusted by the highfalutin language, especially when they want to make sense of it all, but are still in the dark after several readings. One frequently misunderstood concept for video poker players is game variance and why it is important. Make no mistake, it is significant for video poker games and for other gambling options where skill is a factor. Luck may be a short-term factor, but your odds improve when you increase the number of chances you have to â??get lucky.â?

Variance: Refers to the likelihood that short-term results will resemble long-term expectations. The higher the variance, the greater the likelihood that your short-term results will differ from theoretical expectations. Anything is possible, but probability is an exact number based purely on mathematics. The longer you play, the greater the probability that your actual results will resemble theoretical results. For example, we would all agree that there is an equal chance of heads or tails on a coin flip. In the short run, however, we could get heads 10 consecutive times. Does this mean there is a better chance of getting tails on the 11th toss? It does not. The odds remain 50-50. If you were to flip the coin 1 million times, you would see results extremely close to an even number of heads and tails. You can never base future expectations on past results; you can only use statistically correct data to know the odds. In some games, like sports betting, human error is a factor since the variables are so numerous. Thatâ??s why your odds offered on games may differ from place to place. Not so with video poker. The ER (expected return) is absolutely correct, assuming computer-perfect play. (Use Dean Zamzowâ??s software, WinPoker, to practice perfect play at home â?? www.videopokerpractice.com.)

Some players go broke in roulette or blackjack using whatâ??s known as a Martingale system. They continue to double their bet after each loss until they win a hand (BJ), and then go back to their original bet. Both variance and casino maximums make this a bad idea.

Poker Tournament Variance

High Variance Video Poker: Games that rely on infrequent but high paying hands to reach the ER carry a higher risk. You can spot them by examining the pay schedule. If youâ??re paid a large amount for infrequent hands, like four aces, but shorted for frequent hands, like two pair (say youâ??re only paid even money instead of double your wager for two pair), then the game has a high variance. Some examples are Double Bonus (DB), Double Double Bonus (DDB) and Loose Deuces Wild (LDW).

Low Variances: Games that pay more for hands at the bottom of the hierarchy, like two pair (double your wager) but have fewer large jackpots. The most frequent complaint is they pay less for hands like four-of-a-kind, and many players find them boring. Examples are Jacks or Better (JOB), Bonus Poker (BP) and Full Pay Deuces Wild (FPDW).

Tips for Using Variance:

Budget Appropriate: If youâ??re on a limited budget and you want a lot of playing time, you should select a low-variance game.

Denomination: If you consider low-variance games boring, then you should go to a lower denomination. For example, if you normally play dollars, then play quarters instead when choosing a game like DDB.

Number of Hands: If you choose a multi-hand machine, you must play the maximum amount on a 3-, 5- or 10-play device in order to get a 250-to-1 return on a royal flush. Therefore, either find a 50- or 100-play device (no royal penalty for less than max hands) or choose a lower variance game. Regardless of your decision, never accept less than the max return on a royal.

Plan Alternatives: If you choose to play a high-variance game, make sure you have alternative plans should you run out of money. Going over budget by making trips to the ATM is not a good decision.

Promotion Equity: The number of tickets you earn for a drawing is usually based on your coin-in. If your goal is to increase the number of tickets, thus your equity or odds of winning, then choose a low-variance game.

Multiple Points: Just like promotion equity, if you want to rack up a lot of points because points mean money when casinos offer multiple points, choose a low-variance game.

Best Version: Make sure you select the game version with the highest ER regardless of variance. (Free removable expected return tables are in my book, â??The Video Poker Edge.â?) If all choices are coyote ugly (like 7/5 JOB), find another casino.
For more free video poker tips, visit www.gaminganddestinations.com/videopoker

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Linda Boyd, a longtime table-game player before turning to video poker, writes for Southern Gaming, Midwest Gaming and Travel and Arizona Player. Look for her article in the 2011 edition of â??American Casino Guide.â? Her book, â??The Video Poker Edge,â? includes free removable pay schedules and free strategy cards for the most popular games. Itâ??s available at Amazon.com, Square One Publishers and bookstores. A Kindle edition is also available.